Burnham's early premiership is aided less by his own merit than by the self-inflicted blunders of his opponents
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jonathanfreedland. "Andy Burnham is lucky – Polanski, Farage and Badenoch all seem determined to help him | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian." October 9, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Freedland argues that Andy Burnham is having an easy start as prime minister largely because his rivals keep shooting themselves in the foot: the Greens lurched into extremism, Reform got hit by a sleaze scandal, and the Tories picked a pitch that favours the rich. But he warns that this good fortune won't last once money problems and tough decisions arrive.
Conclusion
Andy Burnham has been fortunate in his early days as prime minister because his rivals on the left, the populist right and the traditional right (Polanski's Greens, Farage's Reform, Badenoch's Conservatives) have each made choices that hurt themselves and help him, although this luck will not last once harder economic and political pressures arrive.
Premises
- Labour's byelection win in Holborn and St Pancras defied historical patterns, since Labour usually suffers heavy swings (averaging 24%) when defending government-held seats against a challenge from the left or centre-left. Part of the credit goes to Burnham's leftward shift, but part goes to Polanski's weakness as an opponent.
- The Greens under Polanski have squandered their moral standing by passing a conference motion branding Zionism as racism and seeking a Palestinian state replacing Israel 'by all available means', including armed struggle. Polanski ducked the vote and is portrayed as an ineffective leader, which makes the party less of a threat to Labour.
- Reform UK was damaged by a scandal in which two senior Farage aides were filmed apparently discussing how to get around electoral law to accept a £500,000 US donation. The scandal confirmed existing public suspicions (75% of Britons see Farage as sleazy), and Braverman's remarks about who counts as 'truly English' dominated the conference debate and made the party look like a rabble.
- Badenoch's Conservatives have chosen policies (abolishing inheritance tax on expensive homes, extending free childcare to those earning over £100,000) that prioritise the richest in an age of scarce resources. This gives Labour a dividing line it can exploit, and the Lib Dems pose little threat while Burnham pledges to take up their signature issues of Europe and electoral reform.
- Burnham himself has performed well, with a conference speech that showed his skill at making arguments and contrasted sharply with Starmer.
- Serious challenges lie ahead: high borrowing costs, unavoidable welfare cuts and unhappy MPs facing re-selection, defence and public service funding gaps, rising oil prices, an ineffective civil service, and time lost on the leadership transition.
Assumptions
- The byelection result and conference-season events are driven substantially by opponents' missteps rather than mainly by Burnham's own appeal.
- Voters will respond to these scandals and policy choices by lowering their support for the Greens, Reform and the Conservatives, and shifting toward Labour.
- Scandals that confirm existing suspicions about a politician do the most damage.
- A single byelection and a conference season are reasonable indicators of Burnham's broader political position.
- The characterisations of Polanski, Farage and Badenoch as weak or discredited are accurate and widely shared among voters, not just among Guardian-style progressive readers.
- Opponents' mistakes are a form of 'luck' for Burnham rather than the product of his own strategy.