Bismarckian Realpolitik as the Best Path to Avoiding Global War in Ukraine, Iran, and the Asia-Pacific
Source: https://www.facebook.com/americanspectator/. "The Iron Chancellor’s Guide to Avoiding World War III | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics." October 28, 2026. spectator.org
The Gist
The author argues that Otto von Bismarck's hard-nosed approach to foreign policy offers a roadmap for today. He says the U.S. should put its own interests ahead of those of smaller allies, let political goals rather than the military drive war aims, and be gracious after winning. In his view, this is the best way to keep the conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, and East Asia from becoming a world war.
Conclusion
Bismarckian diplomacy based on Realpolitik, guided by four insights from his memoirs, is the United States' best chance to resolve today's conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Asia-Pacific in a way that avoids global war and protects U.S. interests.
Premises
- Great powers should pursue their own geopolitical interests rather than be led by the policies of minor states or by press-shaped public opinion, so the U.S. should not be led by minor states, even allies or victims of aggression.
- Wars should be fought and peace concluded according to political considerations and with an eye to the future, even if this displeases the military establishment, as when Bismarck declined a triumphal entry into Vienna in 1866 to avoid creating implacable enemies.
- Political leaders, not military commanders, must set and limit the objects of war so that its results fit the nation's need for peace. George H. W. Bush's conduct in the Gulf War illustrates this, while George W. Bush's Iraq War shows the danger of political goals that exceed military capability.
- Magnanimity in victory sustains peace. After unification, Bismarck's restraint led other powers to tolerate a stronger Germany, and his diplomacy from 1871 to 1890 kept small crises from escalating into Europe-wide war.
- The great-power wars of the 20th century and the Cold War followed from the decline of Bismarck's European order, which shows what happens when this kind of diplomacy is absent.
- The U.S. today faces escalation risks in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Asia-Pacific, and no perfect solutions to these conflicts exist.
Assumptions
- Lessons from 19th-century European balance-of-power diplomacy transfer to a 21st-century world with nuclear weapons, global alliances, and non-state actors.
- Bismarck's success in keeping the peace was caused by his diplomatic approach, not by contingent circumstances.
- The U.S. is best seen as one of three great powers (U.S., China, Russia) in a multipolar balance-of-power system.
- Subordinating allied or minor-state interests to great-power interests will not undermine U.S. credibility or alliances.
- Current U.S. leaders (e.g., Trump) are applying, or can apply, these insights effectively.
- Realpolitik is a coherent and sufficient guide to foreign policy, and moral or ideological considerations can be set aside without serious cost.