Banning Diesel Exports Would Worsen the Fuel Crisis, Not Solve It
Source: https://www.facebook.com/americanspectator/. "Mr. President, Please Don’t Make the Diesel Price Problem Worse | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics." September 23, 2026. spectator.org
The Gist
The author argues that Trump's plan to ban diesel exports to lower prices at home is a bad idea because it could backfire by causing refiners to cut production of both diesel and gasoline, and could provoke Europe to stop selling us gasoline in return—potentially causing shortages on the East Coast. Instead, the real problem is a lack of refining capacity caused by Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, so the better fix is to reopen idle U.S. refineries and boost overall fuel production rather than restricting exports.
Conclusion
President Trump should not ban diesel exports to lower domestic diesel prices; instead, he should pursue refinery capacity expansion (e.g., via the Defense Production Act) as the real solution.
Premises
- The U.S. lacks sufficient diesel storage capacity to absorb the roughly 1.5 million barrels per day currently exported if exports were banned.
- If exports are banned and storage is unavailable, refiners will cut production runs rather than produce diesel they cannot store.
- Refinery cuts affect joint production, meaning gasoline output would also fall alongside diesel, risking gasoline shortages.
- Europe depends heavily on U.S. diesel exports (partly due to Ukraine's strikes knocking out ~30% of Russian refining capacity) while supplying the U.S. with surplus gasoline, especially on the East Coast.
- If the U.S. stops exporting diesel to Europe, Europe may retaliate or simply be unable to continue supplying the U.S. with gasoline, risking East Coast gas lines.
- The root cause of high diesel prices is a structural supply shock from Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, not something an export ban can fix.
- Expanding refinery capacity (reopening shut-down refineries via the Defense Production Act) offers a more effective, if not immediate, fix by increasing overall fuel supply rather than reallocating scarcity.
Assumptions
- Refiners' economic behavior (cutting runs when storage is unavailable) will proceed predictably as described, without significant government intervention or incentive changes.
- Europe's dependence on U.S. gasoline exports is significant enough that reduced U.S. diesel exports would trigger reciprocal reduction in gasoline exports to the U.S.
- Reopening shuttered refineries is feasible within a politically meaningful timeframe using executive authority, despite regulatory and logistical hurdles.
- The Ukraine-Russia refinery disruption will persist or worsen, making the diesel shortage a sustained rather than transient problem.
- Political costs of East Coast gasoline shortages would outweigh the political costs of continued high diesel prices before the midterms.
- The U.S. has enough idle refinery capacity that could be reactivated to meaningfully affect the diesel supply-demand balance in the intermediate term.