Badenoch's Rightward Strategy to Match Farage Is Electorally Self-Destructive for the Tories
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/pollytoynbee. "Badenoch is trying to match Farage step for step – but it’s a dance of death for the Tories | Polly Toynbee | The Guardian." October 5, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Polly Toynbee argues that Kemi Badenoch is making a huge mistake by trying to copy Nigel Farage's hard-right policies instead of winning back the moderate voters the Tories have lost. She says this strategy is failing in the polls, driving away the party's traditional base, and that a centrist alternative group within the party might be a better path forward.
Conclusion
By trying to out-compete Nigel Farage and Reform UK on right-wing policy rather than winning back moderate 'blue wall' voters, Kemi Badenoch is leading the Conservative party toward electoral oblivion rather than revival.
Premises
- Political experts (Profs Tim Bale and Rob Ford) agree that without reclaiming moderate 'blue wall' seats in the home counties, a Tory majority is impossible
- The Tories currently poll four points below their last election result, their worst position since 1830, and sit in third place at 19%
- Badenoch's policies (barring net-zero/ECHR supporters, free childcare for high earners, cutting benefits to subsistence level, rejecting closer EU ties, £47bn in cuts) alienate moderate voters while failing to win over Reform voters who psephologists say won't return anyway
- Badenoch is purging moderate dissenters (e.g., removing Gavin Barwell's Lords whip) rather than tolerating a broad coalition, unlike Thatcher who kept 'wets' in her cabinet
- Badenoch and Farage's party are engaged in an escalating 'arms race' of right-wing policies (civil service cuts, aid budget cuts, abolishing environmental agencies) that pushes both parties further from mainstream opinion
- Badenoch's personal polling is poor (net -15) and she is perceived as 'nasty' or 'rude' more than 'strong' or 'intelligent'
- The Tory voter base is aging (median age 63 vs Labour's 46), suggesting demographic decline absent strategic change
- An alternative centrist faction (Prosper UK, backed by One Nation figures like Gauke, Clarke, Grieve, Andy Street, Ruth Davidson) exists and claims substantial secret support among MPs and 30,000 public supporters, showing a viable alternative path exists
Assumptions
- Winning back moderate 'blue wall' voters is necessary and sufficient for Tory electoral revival
- Reform voters are genuinely unrecoverable for the Conservatives
- Policy positioning (rather than personality, events, or other factors) is the primary driver of the Tories' electoral fortunes
- The historical analogy to Thatcher's tolerance of internal dissent is a valid model for what makes a party electorally successful
- Public opinion polling on issues like EU relations and net zero accurately predicts electoral behavior in a future election
- Prosper UK's claimed support (a third of MPs secretly, 30,000 supporters) is a meaningful indicator of viable intra-party alternative strength