Badenoch's 'Reform-lite' Strategy Cannot Produce a Tory Revival
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jonathanfreedland. "A ‘Keminaissance’ for the Tories is wishful thinking – Badenoch’s Reform-lite summer will only end one way | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian." August 7, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that hopes for a Conservative party comeback under Kemi Badenoch are misguided. He points to a disastrous recent election result, a harsh anti-immigrant housing policy announced during actual riots, and her defense of a former neo-Nazi as an adviser, arguing that her strategy of copying Reform UK's hardline politics will always lose to the real thing while pushing away moderate voters the party needs.
Conclusion
Predictions of a 'Keminaissance' (Tory revival under Badenoch) are wishful thinking; her strategy of mimicking Reform UK and tolerating extremism will not restore the Conservative party's fortunes.
Premises
- In the recent Greater Manchester mayoral byelection, the Tories came fifth with only 7.7% of the vote, behind even a hard-right fringe party, indicating the party is moving backwards rather than forwards.
- Badenoch's strategic response to competition from Reform UK has been to match their nationalist-populist policies, such as pledging to evict ~230,000 non-EU foreign national households from council housing.
- This housing policy was announced during a period of violent unrest in Thetford targeting asylum seekers, showing poor judgment and inflammatory timing.
- Badenoch defended and then employed as an adviser Joshua Bonehill-Paine, a convicted antisemite who harassed former MP Luciana Berger, revealing troubling tolerance of extremism within the party.
- In a 'race to the bottom' against Reform UK, Farage's party can always outbid the Tories on hardline policies (e.g., Reform promises faster eviction timelines), meaning the Tories can never win this competition.
- By chasing Reform voters, Badenoch alienates moderate 'blue wall' Conservative voters who support net zero and the European Convention on Human Rights, giving them no incentive to return to the party.
Assumptions
- Electoral success requires either winning back moderate voters or out-competing Reform UK on the right, and these two strategies are mutually exclusive.
- Voters who left for Reform UK are motivated primarily by policy positions rather than other factors like personality or protest voting.
- The Bonehill-Paine and housing policy episodes are representative of Badenoch's broader leadership judgment, not isolated incidents.
- Moderate former Tory voters (blue wall defectors to Lib Dems) remain a viable and necessary electoral base for Tory revival.
- Media and public perception of these controversies will translate into electoral consequences.