Badenoch's Conference Success Is Real but Limited – Tories Still Far from Power
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/henry-hill. "Badenoch made the best of it – but the Tories still have a mountain to climb before any hope of No 10 | Henry Hill | The Guardian." October 7, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author says the Conservative party conference went well for leader Kemi Badenoch, with better poll numbers and a sensible new tax-and-childcare pitch aimed at winning back middle-class voters who left for the Liberal Democrats. But he cautions this is just an improvement from a very low point, and the party's real task right now is just to survive as the biggest right-wing party and fend off Reform UK — not to seriously compete for government.
Conclusion
While the Conservative party conference in Birmingham was a genuine improvement for Badenoch and the Tories, the party's realistic goal remains survival as the largest rightwing party and holding off Reform, not a credible path to No 10.
Premises
- Badenoch's personal ratings and party polling have improved since last year's conference, and her chief leadership rival has defected to Reform UK
- The policy announcements on inheritance tax and childcare represent a sensible strategic pivot toward wooing back affluent, southern, Liberal Democrat-facing voters rather than chasing Reform's voter base
- The Conservatives' and Reform's electoral battlegrounds are largely distinct, with Reform's main competition being Labour (89 of 98 second-place seats) while the Tories compete more with the Lib Dems
- Despite the improved mood, the party's polling gains only lift it from roughly 17.5% to 20%, still below its 2024 general election vote share and far below the 26% it held when Badenoch took over
- Badenoch remains merely the 'second least unpopular' leader rather than genuinely popular, indicating the improvement is relative to a very low baseline
- Conference mood itself is less representative of broader public sentiment than in past decades, since party membership has shrunk and conferences now cater more to fragmented media audiences than engaged mass membership
Assumptions
- Polling trends and conference atmosphere are reasonably reliable indicators of a party's underlying political trajectory
- Targeting disaffected former Tory voters (Lib Dem defectors and abstainers) with an economic offer is a viable electoral strategy
- The Conservative party's realistic ceiling in the near term is survival as the largest party on the right, not outright government
- Journalists and commentators risk being misled by the curated, selectively optimistic narrative that party conferences are designed to project