Authoritarian leaders Putin and Trump are trapped by delusions that prevent them from ending unwinnable wars
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/rafaelbehr. "Putin and Trump are both trapped in losing battles against reality | Rafael Behr | The Guardian." June 10, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that both Putin and Trump are stuck in wars they can't win because their egos won't let them admit failure. Their need to appear strong and infallible traps them in bad situations, while democratic countries like those in Europe can be more flexible and realistic.
Conclusion
Both Putin and Trump are trapped in conflicts they cannot win because their authoritarian worldview and cult of infallibility prevent them from accepting reality or admitting strategic mistakes
Premises
- Putin's Ukraine war has failed catastrophically - lasting longer than WWI, costing trillions of rubles and hundreds of thousands of lives with no significant territorial gains
- Trump's Iran campaign faces similar strategic constraints, as regime change cannot be achieved from the air and Iran has viable countermeasures like closing the Strait of Hormuz
- Both leaders share an authoritarian mindset that treats every interaction as zero-sum and sees admitting limitations as intolerable weakness
- Their cults of infallibility surround them with advisers too cowardly or ideologically blinded to provide realistic assessments
- Both underestimated liberal democracy's resilience, which comes from pluralism and institutional acceptance of legitimate opposition
- European democracies can fill the leadership vacuum by supporting Ukraine more proactively, especially with Hungary's Orbán now defeated
- Authoritarian systems promote loyalty over truth until reality is banished from decision-making, while democratic systems retain corrective mechanisms
Assumptions
- Military success can be objectively measured by territorial gains, casualties, and resource expenditure
- Leaders' personal psychology significantly drives national foreign policy decisions
- Democratic systems are inherently more resilient than authoritarian ones
- European allies have both the capability and will to lead Ukraine support without the US
- Public opinion polling in authoritarian states can still reveal meaningful information about regime stability