Arab Party Surge and Looming Iran War Leave Israel's Election Inconclusive, Likely Favoring Netanyahu in Any Reelection
Source: https://www.facebook.com/americanspectator/. "Israel’s Election Results Still Far From Conclusive | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics." October 31, 2026. spectator.org
The Gist
Neither of Israel's two main political blocs won enough seats to govern, and a big jump in Arab party seats means either side would need Arab support that they've promised not to seek. That likely means a stalemate and a new election, which the author thinks would favor Netanyahu. A possible war with Iran could also keep him in power in the meantime, though it might backfire.
Conclusion
Israel's October 2026 election results are inconclusive: with neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Eisenkot's bloc able to reach 61 seats without Arab parties, a coalition stalemate and reelection are likely, and either a reelection or a new Iran war would most probably work to Netanyahu's advantage, though a war could also backfire.
Premises
- Netanyahu's coalition is projected at about 53 seats and Eisenkot's opposition bloc at about 48, both short of the 61 needed for a majority.
- Arab parties (the Joint List and Ra'am) surged from 10 to a projected 19 seats because of Arab voters' dissatisfaction with security and policing under Ben-Gvir, which makes them potential kingmakers.
- Both Netanyahu's coalition and Eisenkot's bloc have promised their voters not to form coalitions with Arab parties, and the Joint List's policies (an independent Palestinian state, restoring UNRWA) make partnering with it politically costly.
- Without Arab cooperation neither bloc can form a majority, and excluding the Arab parties would signal to a newly mobilized Arab electorate that their voice is not heard, so a stalemate and new elections are the most likely outcome.
- Israeli commentators expect that in a reelection the opposition's momentum will have waned, giving Netanyahu the advantage.
- The US is reportedly preparing for a possible short, intense campaign against Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, and Israel would likely join; war would halt the electoral process and leave Netanyahu as caretaker under emergency powers, letting Likud prepare for a postwar reelection.
- A war could also backfire on Netanyahu, since opposition to him centers on prolonged wars and damage to Israel's reputation, and a delay would give the opposition time to coalesce.
Assumptions
- The projected seat counts from about 95% of votes counted will hold in the final tally.
- Party leaders' campaign promises not to ally with Arab parties will be binding and not abandoned for the sake of power.
- The US will actually launch a campaign against Iran and Israel will join it.
- Israeli law and practice allow a war to suspend or delay the coalition-building and election process, with the incumbent remaining in office as caretaker.
- Anonymous 'Israeli commentators' accurately predict voter behavior in a repeat election.
- Netanyahu and Likud would deliberately use war for political ends rather than for security reasons.