A Midterm Blue Wave Would Diminish Trump, but the Damage of His Presidency Would Remain
Source: David Remnick. "Donald Trump After the Midterms | The New Yorker." October 11, 2026. www.newyorker.com
The Gist
The author thinks voters are finally recognizing how dangerous and corrupt Trump is, and a Democratic wave in the midterms could weaken him. But even then, he will keep causing harm for the rest of his term, and the country will still have to deal with the damage already done. Whether the republic recovers depends on the virtue of its people.
Conclusion
If the 2026 midterms produce a blue wave, Trump will be politically diminished, but the country will still face the wreckage of his presidency, and Trump will continue to do damage. The election therefore reflects a growing recognition that he is uniquely dangerous and not a mainstream president.
Premises
- Signs point to a midterm blue wave, and a growing share of the electorate recognizes how unique and destructive Trump's presidency is.
- Trump's conduct is erratic, amoral and lawless: he has sparked an insurrection, destabilized the Western alliance, threatened Greenland and Canada, and made threats against whole civilizations.
- Trump and his associates run the presidency as a vehicle for personal enrichment and favor-trading (meme coins, pay-for-access clubs, Gulf money, the Guilfoyle texts), while counting on public exhaustion and distraction to escape accountability.
- Trump's behavior shows signs of unravelling, and as a lame duck he retains the power and inclination to keep flouting the law and pressuring universities, cultural institutions and the press, even if Congress changes hands.
- Trump's actions have caused concrete, massive harm, such as the USAID cuts, which researchers estimate cost up to 700,000 lives, so the 'mainstream' framing of his administration is wrong and 'evil' is an apt description.
- Trump's conduct validates Putin's cynical claim that American moral pretensions are hypocrisy and that politics is only about interests, which erodes American moral standing.
Assumptions
- Polling and general political signals are reliable enough to treat a blue wave as plausible.
- A change in congressional control would reduce Trump's political power, even if it does not stop his abuses.
- The harms attributed to Trump (such as the USAID death estimates) are causally attributable to his administration's decisions.
- Moral categories such as 'evil' and 'betrayal' are appropriate for describing political conduct.
- Voters' discontent reflects a real recognition of Trump's wrongdoing and not just economic frustration or partisan swings.
- Madison's point holds: a republic's health depends on the virtue of its citizens, so voters bear responsibility for correcting course.